Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C: The Key to a Sustainable Future

Global warming and climate change have become our greatest concern today that demand our immediate attention. The Earth’s climate is rapidly changing, primarily due to human activities that release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This article aims to explore the current scenario of global warming, the significance of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C, the international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol, and the path towards a sustainable future. We will also take a look at what happened at the recent Bonn Climate Conference 2023.

Understanding Global Warming

Global warming refers to the long-term increase in average global temperatures, primarily due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The most significant contributor to global warming is the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, which release carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere. Other human activities, such as deforestation and industrial processes, also contribute to the rise in GHG emissions.

The Paris Agreement and the 1.5°C Target

The Paris Agreement on climate change is an international legally binding treaty that was adopted by 196 parties in the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) on 12 December 2015 in Paris, the capital city of France. However, it entered into force on 4 November 2016. It is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and has been ratified by the vast majority of countries globally aiming to combat climate change and limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Additionally, it strives to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. The agreement acknowledges that global warming above 1.5°C would have severe consequences for ecosystems, biodiversity, and human livelihoods.

A marked difference from the past is the agreement’s bottom-up approach that means it will try to reach smaller targets first before going to the bigger targets. According to this approach each nation is allowed to submit its own national plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Key Elements of the Paris Agreement are stated below.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Under the Paris Agreement, countries submit their voluntary NDCs, outlining their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. These contributions are reviewed and updated every five years to ensure progress towards the agreement’s goals.
Adaptation and Resilience: The Paris Agreement recognizes the importance of building resilience and adapting to the impacts of climate change. It encourages countries to develop and implement adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable communities and ecosystems.
Financial Support: Developed countries have committed to providing financial support to developing nations to assist them in their climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. This support aims to bridge the financial gap and promote sustainable development worldwide.

The Paris Agreement represents a milestone in international efforts to address climate change by bringing together countries under a shared framework. Its flexibility allows for a collaborative approach, with countries collectively working towards a sustainable and low-carbon future.

The Kyoto Protocol: A Historical Milestone

The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty that was adopted in 1997 in COP3 which took place in Kyoto, Japan. However, it entered into force in 2005. It is an extension of UNFCCC and was created to address the issue of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Before the Paris Agreement, the Kyoto Protocol was the primary international binding treaty on climate change. The protocol introduced mandatory emission reduction targets for developed countries. However, it faced challenges due to limited participation and the absence of emissions reduction commitments from major economies, such as the United States. Nonetheless, it laid the foundation for international cooperation on climate change mitigation and paved the way for subsequent agreements.

The Urgency of Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C

The urgency of limiting global warming to 1.5°C cannot be overstated. The recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2018 warns that harmful carbon emissions have reached unprecedented levels. The report provided a dire warning that global emissions must be cut in half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Failing to limit global warming to 1.5°C will result in irreversible consequences.

Some of the potential impacts of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold include:

Rising sea levels: As the climate warms, glaciers and ice sheets melt, causing sea levels to increase. This has the potential to relocate millions of people living in coastal areas, as well as destroy vital ecosystems.
Extreme weather events: Hurricanes, heatwaves, and droughts, are exacerbated by global warming. These occurrences have the potential to cause extensive devastation, loss of life, and economic instability.
Disruption of ecosystems: Many ecosystems, especially coral reefs and rainforests, are extremely sensitive to climate change. Exceeding the 1.5°C barrier might cause irreparable harm to many ecosystems, threatening biodiversity and ecological services.
Food and water security: Climate change has an impact on agricultural output and water availability. Failure to restrict global warming to 1.5°C might result in food shortages, greater water scarcity, and increased resource disputes.
Health risks: Rising temperatures and changing climatic conditions lead to the development of illnesses like malaria and dengue fever, which are vector-borne. Climate change’s health consequences represent a substantial danger to global well-being.

Current Scenario of Climate Change

Already, the world has warmed by about 1°C above pre-industrial levels. The impacts being seen even at this level are alarming. Sea levels have risen globally by around 20 centimetres in the last century due to thermal expansion of warming oceans and melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers. According to the latest IPCC estimates, global mean sea level is likely to rise between 0.43 to 0.84 meters by 2100 even if warming is limited to 1.5°C. Crossing this threshold increases the risks significantly.

Higher temperatures are exacerbating health issues especially in tropical and subtropical regions. According to the World Health Organization, climate change is expected to cause around 250,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050 from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress. Heatwaves are already proving deadly for vulnerable populations in urban areas across the world. The deadly 2003 European heatwave claimed over 70,000 lives. Even wealthy nations like the U.S. are noticing increased hospital admissions and deaths during summer heatwaves. Tropical illnesses spread by mosquitoes and other insects are expanding their ranges towards temperate regions with warming.

Challenges in Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C

Despite the urgent need to limit global warming to 1.5°C, there are several challenges we face in achieving this goal.

a. Economic and Political Obstacles

Transitioning to a low-carbon economy requires substantial investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable infrastructure. Many countries and businesses face economic and political challenges in making these necessary investments. Balancing short-term economic interests with long-term sustainability goals can be a significant hurdle.

b. Technological Barriers

While renewable energy technologies have advanced significantly in recent years, there are still technological barriers to overcome. Enhancing the efficiency and affordability of renewable energy sources, developing energy storage solutions, and scaling up clean technologies are essential for achieving the 1.5°C target.

c. Behavioural and Societal Shifts

Achieving the 1.5°C target also requires significant behavioural and societal shifts. Individuals and communities must embrace sustainable lifestyles, make conscious choices about energy consumption, and support policies and initiatives that promote sustainability. Overcoming entrenched habits and cultural norms can be a challenge.

Is 1.5°C Even Achievable?

Analysis by independent research groups like Climate Action Tracker suggests current climate plans or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of nations are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Emissions would need to be halved by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and reach net zero by 2050 globally to stay within that warmer threshold. Net zero emission means equal amount of greenhouse gas productions and sink.

While renewable energy deployment is scaling impressively across many geographies, fossil fuel use is still rising overall driven by emerging economies. Coal, oil and gas lock-ins from construction of new infrastructure like power plants and pipelines increase the difficulty of transitioning at the accelerated rates necessary.

On a positive note, costs of renewable energy technologies like solar PV, onshore wind and electric vehicles have plummeted tremendously in recent years, outcompeting new-build fossil equivalents on price alone in most locations now. Citizens, especially youth, are increasingly vocal on climate action through strikes and activism pressuring governments worldwide. COVID stimulus packages present a golden opportunity for nations to invest in green sectors creating jobs as part of recovery planning.

There is thus still hope, but it requires an urgent recalibration of climate ambition from all countries together, aligned with science based 1.5°C pathways, in the next few years. Updating NDCs ahead of schedule as recommended by the Paris Agreement will be crucial to get on track towards sustainability. Real policy action must accompany long term aspirational rhetoric.

Actions for a Sustainable Future

To limit global warming to 1.5°C and strive towards a sustainable future, it is crucial to take immediate and decisive action. Here are some key actions that can contribute to achieving this goal:

a. Transition to Renewable Energy

It is vital to make the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources as soon as possible. Both governments and companies should invest in renewable energy infrastructure and encourage clean technology research and development. Transitioning to a renewable energy-based economy will cut greenhouse gas emissions while also promoting long-term growth.

b. Energy Efficiency and Conservation

Improving energy efficiency and conservation strategies have the potential to dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions. Governments should enact rules and provide incentives to encourage energy-efficient practises in industry, buildings, and transportation. Individuals may help by developing energy-saving practises and purchasing energy-efficient appliances.

c. Encouraging Sustainable Transportation

The transportation sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Promoting sustainable transportation options such as electric vehicles, public transportation, and active modes of transportation like walking and cycling can help reduce emissions. Governments should invest in sustainable transportation infrastructure and provide incentives for the adoption of greener transportation options.

d. Protecting Ecosystems and Biodiversity

It is essential that we counteract climate change by preserving and restoring ecosystems such as forests, wetlands, and seas. Carbon sinks are ecosystems that absorb and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Protecting biodiversity also improves ecosystem resilience and adaptability to changing climatic circumstances.

e. Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems

Organic farming and regenerative agriculture, for example, can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions while also improving soil health. Adopting sustainable and healthy food systems that reduce food waste and encourage plant-based diets can also help to reduce emissions and improve food security.

f. Education and Awareness

Raising awareness about the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is crucial. Education plays a significant role in fostering an understanding of climate change and empowering individuals to take action. Governments, educational institutions, and civil society organizations should prioritize climate change education and outreach programs to inspire collective action.

Bonn Climate Change Conference 2023

The Bonn Climate Conference was held recently from 5 to 15 June 2023 in Bonn, Germany. It is a part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, which holds annual conferences known as the Conference of Parties (COP). The COP meetings bring together representatives from countries that are Parties to the UNFCCC to assess progress in dealing with climate change and negotiate further actions.

Here are the key points about the Bonn Climate Change Conference 2023:

The Bonn Climate Change Conference 2023 was an important interim meeting to advance negotiations and lay the groundwork for a successful outcome at the next COP meeting in the UAE in November 2023 (COP28).
It was seen as generally successful in making progress on many technical issues and keeping climate talks on track. However, significant political decisions were postponed until COP28.
Key outcomes included agreement on finishing some of the rulebook elements of the Paris Agreement and adoption of guidelines for its transparency and compliance mechanisms.
Discussions made headway on reducing emissions in sectors like transport, buildings and industry through establishing common timeframes and frameworks.
However, parties did not announce any substantial new emissions reduction commitments or climate finance pledges. The biggest decisions on these political issues were deferred to COP28.
There was increased momentum and discussions around the need to phase down all fossil fuels for the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement to be met. But no consensus was reached.
Developing countries expressed some frustration over lack of progress on long-standing issues like loss and damage funding for climate impacts.

So, in summary, while major political decisions were postponed, BCCC2023 was largely viewed as a technical success that set the stage well for COP28 to potentially deliver more ambitious climate progress and commitments. But much still depends on COP28.

Conclusion

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is vital for a sustainable future. Failure to meet this goal will have serious consequences. The Paris Agreement provides a framework for collective action. It requires the commitment and collaboration of governments, businesses, and individuals worldwide. We can make substantial progress towards a sustainable future by shifting to renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, implementing sustainable practises, and safeguarding ecosystems. It is the time for all of us to take action, advocate for change, and support sustainable policies. Our collective efforts can keep global warming within limit and provide a brighter future for future generations.